@baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. And you might expect Democratic Gov. Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site. With the prospect that abortion could soon be illegal in many states, some people may face difficult decisions about what to do if they have an unwanted pregnancy. Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. The United States of America has 100 senators, and all are constantly under public scrutiny. But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. 56% of independent voters in . All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Hi. Those is Tim. And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. The . Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. All Rights Reserved. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. He welcomes comment at: drooks . Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. The decline in sentiment largely started after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but gained momentum after Biden was elected, when Johnson made headlines for his statements about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and skepticism of vaccines. He does so despite woeful approval ratings among Wisconsin . Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? Share: Listen Download. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. The poll also did head-to-head matchups of incumbent Republican U.S. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Have questions? Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. In . The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. I'm just trying to convey the truth. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. You must be an Urban Milwaukee member to leave a comment. Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. Approval Ratings (130) Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. This includes Sens. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Democratic Gov. Buy It Now. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. The poll, whose . I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN. Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic communications strategist, said other issues like Russias aggression in Ukraine, the Supreme Courts handling of Roe v. Wade and the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic could also change the climate come November. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. -36. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Voters do not. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. Independent Sens. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered . Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. . Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Learn more. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin.